Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas surged 100 points today to trade at 3.927 as the weather forecast turned cold fast with storms due across the US

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas surged 100 points today to trade at 3.927 as the weather forecast turned cold fast with storms due across the US through most of November. This winters forecast is starting to duplicate last year’s pattern that saw the most severe winter in 20 years. An unusually intense upper level disturbance for mid-autumn crashes from Lake Superior to South Carolina between Thursday and Saturday.

This spinning, super high energy weather system sets up a snowstorm for sections of the Appalachian Mountains. In its wake, unseasonably cold temperatures drive into the Southeast, challenging records. As it spawns a storm over the ocean on Saturday, powerful winds will then buffet much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. “It’s the kind the kind of weather event you expect in January — not November 1,” writes meteorologist Roy Spencer in a blog post headlined “Polar Vortex Charleston” given the disturbance’s roots in the high Arctic and excursion towards the southern city.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a study on the price impacts of exporting LNG titled: ‘Effect of Increased Levels of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on US Energy Markets’. The study was order by the Department of Energy (DoE) as part of an update of the previous EIA and NERA Economic Consulting studies from 2012. Before DOE can grant approval to export applications that take the total amount exported about 12 billion ft3/d, they must conduct studies to determine the price impact to show that exports have net benefits to the US economy.

A new report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has confirmed previous findings that higher levels of LNG exports would yield greater economic gains for the US, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending	1.5%	1.9%	-0.3%
JPY	National Core CPI (Sep)	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (Oct)	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
EUR	German Retail Sales	-3.2%	-1.0%	1.5%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	French Consumer	-0.8%	-0.3%	0.9%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM)	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate	11.5%	11.5%	11.5%
USD	Core PCE Price Index		0.1%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Aug)		0.0%	0.0%
USD	Chicago PMI (Oct)		60.0	60.5
USD	UM Consumer Sent		86.4	86.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing			46.5
AUD	Building Approvals			3.0%
CNY	Non-Manufacturing PMI			54.0
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI			50.4
EUR	Spanish Manufacturing			52.6
EUR	Italian Manufacturing		50.7	50.7
EUR	French Manufacturing		47.3	47.3
EUR	German Manufacturing		51.8	51.8
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		50.7	50.7
GBP	Manufacturing PMI			51.6
USD	ISM Employment		55.0	54.6
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		56.7	56.6