Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas took a header today falling 83 points to a new low of 2.238 as supplies continued to increase while winter weather seems far off lowering HDD demand. Prices fell slumped 4 percent, or despite a smaller-than-expected storage build. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas supplies in storage rose by 63 billion cubic feet last week, below expectations for an increase of 69 billion.

That compared with builds of 81 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 87 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is an increase of 81 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.877 trillion cubic feet, 4.1% above the five-year average for this time of year and 12% above their level at this time a year ago.

Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have more than made up for all of last winter’s unusually strong demand.

Stockpiles are set to reach a record by the end of this month. The EIA sees storage levels peaking at 3.956 trillion in November, which would top the November 2012 high of 3.929 trillion.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

October 29th – November 4th: A mild and moist weather system tracking across the Mid-Atlantic and NE will exit today. However, a colder system out of southern Canada will sweep through the northern Plains and Midwest today, and across the NE Friday while weakening. This will bring another round of showers, with a rain/snow mix into the coldest air over the Great Lakes. Overnight lows behind the cold front will drop into the upper teens to 30s with highs of only 40s and 50s. There will also be weather systems tracking across the West the next few days with showers and cooling, with a track then through the mid-central US this weekend. This will be followed by a colder and stronger Western US system next week, while the central and eastern US becomes warmer than normal. Overall, demand will be MODERATE, then dropping back LOW by early next week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)