Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas gained 13 points to trade at 3.869 after yesterday’s inventory report in the US and a turn in the weather

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas gained 13 points to trade at 3.869 after yesterday’s inventory report in the US and a turn in the weather forecast.

Though the inventory data missed expectations by only a small amount, one analyst said the market reaction was likely due to traders quickly closing out bearish bets that prices would fall, and that market fundamentals remain weak.

The report showed inventories in the week ended Oct. 3 rose 105 billion cubic feet, compared with analyst expectations of 108 billion cubic feet. Total stockpiles reached 3.205 trillion cubic feet, 10.5% below average for this time of year.

Producers and utilities are racing to replenish supplies before the start of heating season next month after they were severely depleted last winter, but analysts say a robust production season and mild weather should allow for inventories to adequately recover.

Mild weather during the so-called shoulder season between summer air-conditioning and fall and winter heating has added to the growing supplies, as gas demand has been weak. Those conditions are expected to continue through mid-October, with forecasters predicting above-normal temperatures for this time of year that will continue to keep gas-fired heating demand at bay. Natural-gas customers can expect to pay slightly less on their heating bills during the upcoming winter, especially if the weather is warmer than last year’s deep freeze.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY		Monetary Minutes
JPY		Tertiary Industry Activity	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%
AUD		Home Loans (MoM)	-0.9%	0.1%	0.3%
GBP		Trade Balance (Aug)	-9.10B	-9.60B	-10.41B
GBP		Trade Balance Non-EU	-3.59B	-4.00B	-4.76B
USD		Export Price Index		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD		Import Price Index		-0.7%	-0.9%
CAD		Unemployment Rate		7.0%	7.0%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Holiday	Japan – Health-Sports Day
	Holiday	Canada – Thanksgiving Day
NZD		FPI (MoM) (Sep)			0.3%
CNY		Exports (YoY) (Sep)			9.4%
CNY		Imports (YoY) (Sep)			-2.4%
CNY		Trade Balance (Sep)			49.83B