Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

By:

Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas is trading at 4.138 adding 17 points as traders foresee another harsh winter. Investors will closely monitor

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 4.138 adding 17 points as traders foresee another harsh winter. Investors will closely monitor Thursday’s EIA report along with the strength of the US dollar. NG prices pulled back slightly early in the session after weather forecasts showed warmer expectations than they had the day before. Cool temperatures and fears of an early winter had some traders thinking that demand for home heating should drive prices higher. Once prices broke $4 on Monday, momentum and technical trading kept pushing prices higher, traders and analysts said. That has some thinking the market is inflated with record production still likely to overwhelm demand, capping the rally and keeping prices within a 7-cent range on Tuesday.

“There’s a lot of new supply hitting the market and not a lot of demand,” Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston, said in a note. “At these prices, power generators do not want to use natural gas, and the new supply is free to be placed into storage.”

Fear over momentum did prevent larger losses, though, traders said. Prices pushed up through several resistance levels that may have made technical traders hesitate to buy, and that made some bears cautious, keeping trading relatively tight.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing Index	46.5		47.3
JPY	Tankan Large Mfg	13	10	12
JPY	Tankan Non-Mfg	13	17	19
CNY	Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	51.1	51.0	51.1
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%
IDR	Core Inflation (YoY) (Sep)	4.04%	4.33%	4.47%
EUR	Spanish Mfg. PMI (Sep)	52.6	52.2	52.8
CHF	SVME PMI (Sep)	50.4	52.0	52.9
EUR	Italian Mfg. PMI (Sep)	50.7	49.5	49.8
EUR	French Mfg. PMI	48.8	48.8	48.8
EUR	German Mfg. PMI (Sep)	49.9	50.3	50.3
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	50.3	50.5	50.5
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	51.6	52.5	52.2
USD	ADP Nonfarm		210K	204K
USD	ISM Manufacturing		57.5	58.1
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		58.5	59.0

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	HIA New Home Sales			-5.7%
AUD	Building Approvals		1.0%	2.5%
AUD	Trade Balance		-0.700B	1.359B
GBP	Construction PMI		63.5	64.0
EUR	Interest Rate Decision		0.05%	0.05%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		297K	293K
USD	Factory Orders (MoM)		-9.3%	10.5%