The natural gas markets have rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Friday, and what would have been relatively thin trading.
Natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, continuing the overall parabolic run. At this point, there is a bit of a standoff between the European Union and Russia as to whether or not Rubles are going to be used to pay for natural gas. Because of this, this is all about geopolitical issues more than anything else. At this point, something is going to break.
When you look at the longer-term chart, it could suggest a run all the way to the $9.50 level but getting a decent entry to take advantage of has been very difficult, to say the least. You probably need to look at the latest negotiations and geopolitical games until we get some type of clarity. At this point, we could see a massive move based upon some type of agreement. The question now is whether or not the European Union will continue to dig and it seals, or if they will admit that they cannot get around the idea of using Russian gas.
As long as the standstill continues, it is probably the only fundamental that matters. After all, demand is going to drop rather drastically in the United States over the next couple of weeks, but it appears that supply and demand in the present are not anywhere near as concerning to traders as the potential of a prolonged standoff. Given enough time, the market will find a reason to turn around, if for no other reason than it gets too expensive. If the Europeans finally capitulate, then the price of gas will collapse completely.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.