Natural Gas News: Bullish Forecast Fuels Futures Rally on Cold Weather and LNG Demand

Natural Gas Futures Push Higher on Colder Forecasts and LNG Demand Surge

U.S. natural gas futures climbed on Monday, buoyed by colder weather projections and record-setting LNG export demand. After a choppy start to the session, the market regained momentum, signaling strengthening bullish sentiment as traders reacted to evolving weather models and weekend demand signals.

The December contract rose sharply in early trade, peaking at $4.298 before paring some gains. Price action has been volatile, consistent with weather-driven sessions, where updated midday forecasts prompt sharp intraday reactions. Monday’s move followed last week’s breakout above the 50-day moving average and the October 2 high at $4.211, reinforcing bullish momentum from a technical perspective — though resistance near $4.336, a key long-term 50% retracement level, remains in focus.

Is Colder Weather the Catalyst Bulls Have Been Waiting For?

Weather data took a notably colder turn over the weekend and again in Monday’s midday models. Both the GFS and ECMWF models added approximately 20 heating degree days (HDDs) to the forecast since Friday, with most of the increase centered on a Nov 9–11 cold shot targeting the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. While national demand remains light through midweek, it is expected to ramp up to moderate levels by the weekend, supporting upward price movement.

LNG Exports Reach Record Levels, Providing Structural Support

LNG export demand hit a record Monday, reinforcing the broader structural tightness in the U.S. natural gas market. With global buyers increasingly reliant on U.S. supply, especially as winter approaches in key overseas markets, feedgas deliveries have surged. This demand backdrop has helped offset mild early-season domestic weather and provided a floor to prices over the past several sessions.

Storage Levels Climb, But Remain Within Historical Range

The latest EIA storage report showed a 74 Bcf injection for the week ending October 24, lifting total working gas in storage to 3,882 Bcf. This is 29 Bcf above year-ago levels and 171 Bcf above the five-year average. While storage remains healthy, the build was largely in line with expectations and did little to temper Monday’s bullish trading. Notably, South Central storage rose by 27 Bcf, the largest regional increase.

Will Bullish Momentum Continue This Week?

Given the combination of colder weather revisions, record LNG export levels, and recent technical breakouts, the short-term outlook remains bullish. Traders will be closely watching whether futures can clear resistance near $4.336, which would open the door to testing the 200-day moving average at $4.460. Continued colder shifts in weather models and strong export flows would likely sustain upward pressure into the end of the week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.