Natural Gas News: Speculators Load Up as Bulls Target $4.186

Natural Gas Futures Jump Tuesday as Speculators Load Up and Heat Builds

U.S. natural gas futures traded sharply higher late Tuesday, breaking above the 50-day moving average at $3.800 and key resistance levels at $3.817, $3.832, and $3.859. The technical breakout opens the path toward the next major pivot at $4.186, with traders eyeing hotter forecasts and global supply risks as catalysts for further upside.

Are Speculators Fueling a Larger Move in Natural Gas Futures?

CFTC data shows traders added 90,000 natural gas futures contracts over the two weeks ending June 10—the biggest two-week increase since February—pushing speculative positioning to a 16-month high. EBW Analytics noted the surge reflects a high-stakes standoff between growing long and short bets as the market transitions into the peak summer demand window. The breakout above multiple resistance levels is reinforcing bullish conviction and drawing in additional buying interest.

Will the Heatwave in the East Deliver on Demand Expectations?

Weather models continue to trend hotter, particularly across the eastern U.S., where a ridge of high pressure is expected to bring highs in the upper 80s and 90s from June 21–25. While the West remains cooler, NatGasWeather forecasts locally high demand across two-thirds of the country. However, the national outlook remains moderate in the short term, with traders needing to see sustained heat—especially in Texas—to justify a demand-driven rally.

Can Middle East Risk Premiums Sustain Support for U.S. Gas Prices?

Monday’s rally in European gas prices added momentum to U.S. markets as geopolitical tensions escalated. Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars field, along with a temporary shutdown of Israel’s Leviathan field, disrupted supply and raised concerns over LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz. These developments stoked fears of export bottlenecks, lifting global prices and lending support to U.S. gas on the back of strong LNG flows, which stood at 14.0 bcf/day.

Is Rising Production and Bearish Storage a Ceiling for Prices?

U.S. dry gas production reached 105.8 bcf/day on Monday, up 2.6% year-over-year, while demand trailed at 69.5 bcf/day. Last week’s EIA storage build of 109 bcf—well above the five-year average—underscores strong supply levels, even as drilling rigs edged lower to 113. Electricity demand remains a weak spot, with output down 2.7% year-over-year, tempering the bullish case from the demand side.

Market Forecast: Short-Term Bullish Momentum Holds, Eyes on $4.186

With technicals breaking cleanly above resistance and speculative bets building, near-term sentiment favors continued upside. Weather remains the swing factor—any follow-through on heat in the East or added geopolitical tension could push prices toward the $4.186 pivot. Storage and production are limiting factors, but bulls currently have control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.