Natural Gas News: Weather Demand Surge Lifts Natural Gas Futures Prices Today

Natural Gas Rallies as Cold Weather Lifts Demand — But How Far Can It Run?

U.S. natural gas futures pushed higher Friday, with January Natural Gas Futures settling at $5.289, up 4.46%, as a fresh round of cold weather forecasts lifted expectations for heating demand. That breakout cleared the June 20 peak at $5.341, bringing the March 10 high at $5.992 into focus for momentum traders — though supply headwinds remain.

Nearby futures — which reflect the most active front-month contracts — surged to their highest level in nearly three years, confirming broader bullish sentiment in the market.

Is Weather Still the Driving Force Behind This Rally?

Yes — and right now, the market’s betting on sustained cold. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 expects below-normal temperatures to grip the eastern U.S. through at least mid-December, with the pattern possibly extending into the following week. That’s triggering a wave of demand expectations just as the first meaningful storage draws of the season begin.

Still, Thursday’s EIA report showed only a -12 Bcf draw for the week ending November 28 — far below the five-year average of -43 Bcf. Inventories are now just 0.4% below last year but still 5.1% above the five-year seasonal norm. It’s enough to keep bulls active, but not enough to erase the risk of oversupply if the weather moderates.

What’s Happening on the Supply Side?

Production is still strong. Lower-48 output came in at 111.7 Bcf/day on Friday, up 7.2% year-over-year. That’s nearly in line with demand, which totaled 113.3 Bcf/day — a tight spread but not yet bullish in isolation. LNG feedgas flows remain healthy at 18.3 Bcf/day, though they’ve softened slightly week-over-week. Meanwhile, the rig count ticked down by 1 to 129, just below the 2.25-year high of 130. The EIA’s updated 2025 forecast puts U.S. production at 107.67 Bcf/day, reinforcing the view that supply isn’t going away.

Are Traders Buying the Breakout — or Fading It?

Friday’s price action in January Natural Gas Futures shows buyers stepping in with confidence. The move above $5.341 puts the March 10 high at $5.992 back in play. With the contract printing as high as $5.496 intraday, momentum is building — but it’s still a weather-led trade.

Technically, the 50-day moving average for January is rising at $4.464 and looks set to cross above the 200-day at $4.731 — a potential bullish crossover if the rally holds. Support sits at $4.953 (50% retracement from the recent leg), with the 200-day MA acting as a deeper level if weather headlines fade.

Bottom Line: Bullish Momentum — but It’s a Weather Trade

The rally has legs — but only as long as cold weather does. The breakout in January Natural Gas Futures and the multi-year high in nearby futures are drawing in buyers, and technical setups are starting to favor continuation. But fundamentals aren’t stretched enough to support this move without help from the forecast. Storage remains adequate, and production isn’t blinking.

If the cold holds, bulls stay in control. If it doesn’t — this rally loses steam fast.