On signs of exhaustion, I will be shorting natural gas, but the opening was fairly strong. However, it is likely to be short-lived.
The natural gas market has gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday and get the week on the positive foot. That being said, I think you have a situation where you look at this as a market that number one is far too oversold in the short term. But I also think you have to keep in mind that this is a market that has been so seasonal for so many years that people just jump in and buy it once we get to a well-established support level in cold weather, which is what we have in the United States, at least for the next day.
And then sell it once we hit warmer weather, which is what we’re heading towards. After all, we are now in the April contract. So one would anticipate that any bounce, given enough time, we will more likely than not see sellers. The $3.50 level is an area that I’d be watching fairly closely, assuming we can even get that far.
On signs of exhaustion, I am more than willing to start shortening natural gas. We are heading out of the busy season. Yes, when I look outside my window I see about two to three inches of snow, but I also know that it is supposed to be almost spring-like by the end of the day tomorrow. So, it’s a very short-term glitch. I do think this rally will fade as well. Look for a long wick on shorter-term charts, more likely than not will be your clue as the sellers should return.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.