Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Rallies as Qatar Stops Production

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has rallied rather significantly during the trading session here on Tuesday in the early hours, which is not a huge surprise, really, due to the fact that the war in the Middle East continues to rage and Qatar has now shut down production. This, of course, could have a major influence on what happens next.

So, really, what this means is that traders will be starting to speculate that the Americans are going to be exporting more energy to Europe. That being said, I don’t know that the market just takes off straight up in the air because, quite frankly, this isn’t the right time of year to expect that type of move.

Seasonal Demand and Strategic Shorting

Yes, it will certainly have an influence, but I also recognize that the demand won’t necessarily be as strong as it would have been said 2 months ago. So, with that, I believe this is a situation where you eventually get an opportunity to short natural gas, and I’d be very interested if we get anywhere near $3.50. This is an area that I would like to fade exhaustion if I get a chance.

Fading rallies are probably the way going forward once we get a little bit higher. I think we need to calculate the idea of Europe importing LNG to really get the right feed here for a potential setup. Regardless, I just don’t want to buy it this time of year, as the demand will more likely than not be weak to say the least.

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