Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Sitting on Top of Big Figure Again

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market remains a bit sluggish despite the fact that it has rallied slightly in the early hours, as the $3 level looks to hold as support. Currently, we have a couple of different things going on that are holding the market back. The first one, of course, is record production. United States dry gas production is hovering near record highs of 112.5 billion cubic foot, up nearly 5% year over year.

Milder weather is a major issue as well as spring starts to appear in North America, especially across the western US. It is curbing heating demand, leading to a slight storage withdrawal season. In other words, there are plenty of natural gas tanks that are still full. While the year 2026 began with record withdrawals due to that massive winter storm in January, inventories are expected to recover rather quickly, potentially ending the season 5% in storage above the 5-year average.

Geopolitical Factors and LNG Momentum

There are some things that could drive this market higher though. That is the Middle East conflict, of course, as the closure of Qatari gas fields has removed roughly 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas supplies. This has forced buyers to look towards US exports.

LNG momentum continues to build as flows to US export terminals are hitting record levels and facilities like Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramp up their deliveries. Data centers are an emerging story, as well as structural demand for natural gas to power them, could end up being a story throughout the year and possibly going forward.

The $3 level for me remains a massive floor in this market, but even if we were to break down below there, I think there is significant support at the $2.85 level as well. So, with this, I don’t know that we break down drastically. I think this remains a situation where you are fading rallies like you got the opportunity to on Friday of last week.

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