Natural Gas Price Forecast: 200-Day Resistance Tests Momentum

Resistance Test Near 200-Day Average

Natural gas extended its advance on Friday, almost meeting the primary upside target of the 200-day moving average. The high for the day was $3.39, and the 200-day average is at $3.41. Suffice it to say that a bearish reaction followed, with trading continuing near the lows of the day at the time of writing. The day looks set to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Note that the top of the small rising channel was also tested as resistance. Since the close is still within the channel, resistance remains intact and confirmed.

Support Cluster Builds Beneath Price Action

Key dynamic support is represented by the 10-day moving average at $3.06, since it is aligned with the lower rising channel line. Two indicators near a similar price strengthen the potential significance of the price zone. This alignment also confirms the integrity of the small rising channel structure and suggests that, following a pullback, the advance in natural gas may continue. Although the 200-day moving average was approached, it wasn’t specifically reached. This leaves open another attempt to rally through that indicator.

Wedge Projection and Broader Upside Potential

Moreover, the top of the wedge pattern at $3.49 is a higher potential target. Typically, a minimum target from a wedge pattern is the beginning of the pattern. This does not mean that it will be reached, only that it could be following a pullback and renewed signs of strength. The uptrend price structure would need to be retained during a retracement for this bullish scenario to remain possible. There is also the long-term uptrend line, which represents potential dynamic resistance, and it may yet be approached.

Key Pullback Levels and Market Structure

Initial support on a pullback may be found near the 100-day moving average around $3.16, which aligns with the prior trend high resistance zone of $3.14 and now potential support. Be aware that since the 10-day average is rising, it will continue to move closer to the higher support zone. This broader structure, following Friday’s extension toward key resistance, keeps price action coiled between rising support and overhead resistance within the channel framework.

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