Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bear Trend Pressures Key Support

Short-Term Weakness Builds Below Trendline

Natural gas established a slightly lower low for the short-term pullback during Wednesday’s session, hitting a low of $2.83 before bouncing intraday. The day’s high of $2.94 provided a second-day test of resistance near the lower uptrend line connecting to the February higher swing low of $2.81.

That swing is a key part of the near-term price structure, and a decline below it would generate a bearish signal, showing that downward pressure was increasing. A break below that trendline, as well as the temporary low of $2.90, provided initial signals that the short-term bear trend is continuing, which could lead to a continuation of the larger bearish trend.

Lower High Reinforces Broader Downtrend

This bearish response follows the advance to a high of $3.49 two weeks ago, which showed sellers taking back control near trend resistance. Neither the long-term downtrend line nor the nearby 200-day moving average at $3.53 were recovered before price turned lower again. That high generated a lower swing high, which is now part of the broader declining trend structure.

In addition, an eventual continuation of the larger downtrend was indicated once the lower high was established. This is because the $3.49 high also tested resistance near former support of a long-term uptrend line. That reaction helped confirm a potential reversal of the trend. Moreover, a decline below the higher swing low at $2.74 from August also provided a further potential reversal signal.

Recovery Scenario Faces Key Barriers

Despite the potential for further downside, another rally to test potential resistance levels may begin to unfold if the short-term uptrend line can be recovered, followed by an advance above an interim swing high of $3.23. If that occurs, then the price zone near the recent $3.49 high and the 200-day moving average could be tested again.

Support Breakdown Risks Extend Decline

A bearish signal will be generated on a drop below the higher swing low at $2.81, with the trend low of $2.58 from January next in line to be tested. A daily close below that level would confirm a continuation of the broader bearish trend that began following the December peak at $5.02, reinforcing the downside risk outlined at the start of this analysis.

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