Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bulls Eye Trend Shift from Weekly Swing Low

Natural Gas Rallies into Resistance

Natural gas extended its rebound on Thursday, climbing to a five-day high of $2.97. That advance marked the second consecutive session with higher highs and lows and completed a test of resistance at the 10-Day moving average. Stronger resistance sits just above, at the confluence of the 20-Day and 50-Day averages near $2.99 and $3.00. A decisive move through that zone would provide the first real sign of follow-through strength.

Channel Structure Guides Price Action

The broader structure remains a declining trend channel, with recent activity respecting both the center line and the quarter lines. This suggests potential for another rally toward the upper quarter line, consistent with prior behavior. However, any sustainable advance requires a clean break above the 50-Day average, which has capped upside momentum in recent weeks.

Signs of Strength but Trend Still Bearish

Although the prevailing trend remains bearish, the 20-Day moving average has angled higher for most of September, hinting at improving demand. Price remains below that line, tempering any bullish implications for now. Notably, this week’s low of $2.77 has so far established a higher swing low, a constructive development if it can be sustained.

Potential Bullish ABCD Projection

The higher swing low sets the stage for a potential rising ABCD pattern. The initial 100% projection targets $3.35, with further upside extending toward $3.49–$3.51, where the 200-Day average converges with a 127.2% ABCD projection. Interestingly, the projected D point also aligns with the intersection of a long-term downtrend line and the upper boundary of the declining channel.

Key Levels to Watch

Traders should note that this week’s low marked the first pullback since natural gas broke out of a falling wedge on August 27. If that level continues to hold, it will provide an early bullish signal. For now, the market remains in a bearish channel, with potential for volatility around dynamic resistance levels. A confirmed breakout above $3.00 would open the door for further upside.

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