Natural Gas Price Forecast: Double Bottom Sparks Bullish Reversal

Breakout Above Neckline Signals Bullish Reversal

Natural gas spiked to a high of $3.22 on Tuesday as it attempted to reclaim the 20-day moving average, now at $3.14. A bullish reversal signal triggered above the lower swing high at $2.90, which is also the neckline of a double bottom pattern. That is bullish behavior that is strengthened by continued momentum following the breakout. If natural gas can end the day above the 20-day average, it will indicate remaining underlying demand that should help move prices higher.

Broadening Formation Supports Upside Attempt

The double bottom breakout confirmed a lower swing low at $2.56 for this month and a bounce off the bottom of a developing broadening formation. Once a reversal occurs from one side of the formation, the other side becomes a potential target. Even though the upside target at the top of the formation may not be reached, the bullish reversal suggests that a solid attempt to advance towards recent highs up to $5.02 is a possibility. That logic increases the chance the lower target may be reached.

Fibonacci and Moving Averages Define Upside Targets

With buyers taking control an initial upside target around 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.51 is looking more likely as an initial expectation. A little higher is the falling 200-day average at $3.65, which may present more formidable resistance. The developing rally is the first time that the 200-day line will be tested as resistance since it failed as support in late-2025.

Currently, it is close to aligning with the October higher swing low support level at $3.60. A bounce from the October low confirmed support near the 200-day line. So, maybe a reversal sequence results in the current counter-trend rally hitting formidable resistance at the confluence of the 200-day average and prior support at $3.60. For now, that would be an initial upside target for this rally.

Support Levels Guide Near-Term Pullbacks

Short-term support is at the double bottom neckline at $2.96, followed by this week’s low of $2.85 and the 10-average at $2.82. Nonetheless, a daily close above the 20-day average will confirm strong demand that should take the price of natural gas higher. This doesn’t mean that short-term weakness doesn’t follow, but if it does, it will likely be used for accumulation.

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