Decisive Breakout Friday
Natural gas resolved a three-week ascending triangle with authority Friday, surging above the prior trend high at $4.69 to a new peak of $4.87. The session closed near that high despite the holiday-shortened day, producing a higher daily low of $4.39 and the strong finish on three timeframes – daily, weekly, and monthly. Confluence of timeframes is a bullish indication.
Measured Move & Support Test
The breakout completed a 200% extension of a prior pullback exactly at $4.69 before powering through—a classic measured objective that often acts as only a pause in strong trends. Friday’s $4.53 low delivered a precise test of the 10-day moving average, met instantly with aggressive buying that triggered the triangle resolution and new highs.
Moving Average Behavior Turns Bullish
Recent pullbacks have repeatedly found support at rising moving averages: the last one at the 20-day line, and on Friday at the 10-day. This progressive defense of higher averages signals strengthening demand and mirrors behavior seen in prior strong breakouts. Sustaining momentum above the 10-day line—now confirmed dynamic support—is essential for the bullish structure to remain intact.
Next Objectives
Immediate upside focus falls on the long-term trend high from March at $4.91. A clean push above that $4.91 price zone, would generate another clear bullish signal for the developing bull trend that began from the August low. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term downtrend started from the November 2022 swing high, then becomes then next upside target at $5.28.
Bigger-Picture Strength
Natural gas has already reclaimed a lower October 2023 swing high, underscoring larger-timeframe improvement. Friday’s powerful green candle and close near the monthly high reinforce that shift in character.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
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The combination of an ascending triangle breakout, perfect 10-day average launch, and close at highs on multiple timeframes leaves natural gas strongly positioned for a continuation toward $4.91 at a minimum. The 10-day and 20-day averages now serve as trailing support gauges; any post-breakout pullback that holds above them might offer attractive risk/reward for the next leg higher. Momentum firmly favors buyers until proven otherwise.
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