Natural Gas Price Forecast: Gas Weakens Toward Lower Support Levels

Bears Control Price Action Near Critical Lows

Natural gas showed sellers maintaining control on Tuesday, pushing the price down to a new bearish low of $2.77. At the time of writing, trading remains near the session lows, and the potential exists for further declines before the day ends. The low reached the important 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.79, which has provided temporary support and stalled the immediate descent, at least for now. Price action signals continued bearish momentum as natural gas remains below resistance levels encountered earlier in the session.

Resistance and Trendlines Confirm Bearish Bias

Tuesday’s high of $2.99 found notable resistance around the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) line, which is measured from the March trend low. This level acts as a dynamic ceiling that sellers defended during the session. Additionally, the day’s low touched a lower parallel trendline at the bottom of a recent small falling channel formation, reinforcing downward pressure on prices.

When price declines following a test of resistance at a former support line, it confirms the bears’ control and suggests that further downside movement is likely. Any rebound in the near term would likely face resistance near this week’s highs in the $2.98 to $3.00 range, reinforcing a tight trading band.

Key Downside Targets from Harmonic Relationship

Below the recent low of $2.77, natural gas appears poised to test a significant support target near $2.63. This level represents the completion of a 100% projected target for a falling ABCD harmonic pattern, a widely recognized technical formation. Such harmonic relationships between downswings often mark potential pivot points and areas where buyers may emerge.

If selling persists beyond $2.63, the next area of interest is the 78.6% retracement level from a larger prior upswing, located at $2.54, which aligns with a long-term downtrend line that may offer support. Further downside could reach an extended ABCD target at $2.36, which corresponds to a 127.2% projection of the pattern.

Upside Resistance Remains Firm

On the upside, key resistance levels include the two-day highs around $2.98 to $3.00 and the 20-Day moving average, which currently sits higher at $3.14. For bulls to regain momentum and signal a potential reversal, a sustained move above these levels would be necessary. Until that happens, technical evidence suggests that sellers remain in control and lower prices are more probable.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.