Natural Gas Price Forecast: Higher Lows Signal Trend Strength

Momentum Extends from Key Support Zone

Natural gas advanced to a high of $3.38 on Thursday, extending the one-day bullish reversal that followed a successful test of support near the 100-day moving average and the uptrend line on Tuesday. A higher swing low of $3.10 was established, now serving as a key structural support. Buyers remain in control at the time of writing, with the session likely to end in the top third of the day’s range. In addition, this will be the highest daily closing price for natural gas since the April bottom. That is a sign of strength that suggests that the advance may extend slightly higher in the near-term.

Resistance Reaction at the 200-Day Moving Average

Long-term resistance represented by the 200-day moving average near $3.42 was successfully tested on Monday, initially triggering a pullback. However, since support was confirmed near the 100-day average for the first time since it was reclaimed last week, the current uptrend may have further to go. Once prior resistance switches to a support area, the trend typically extends further in the direction of the breakout. This also means that the 100-day average takes on greater significance as support moving forward.

Wedge Structure and Upside Extension Zones

There are two higher potential targets above the 200-day average. The beginning of a recent falling wedge pattern is at the lower swing high of $3.49 from March, followed by a long-term uptrend line that previously marked trend support until it broke in mid February. The price represented by the line will depend on when it is approached. The current advance is the first larger pullback towards that line. Once complete, it typically leads to a bearish continuation or rejection from resistance unless broken decisively.

Also, it is possible that the developing bull trend leads to a continuation above the long-term uptrend line. A bullish reversal signal will trigger on a rise above the lower swing high of $3.49, suggesting that such a breakout scenario remains in play.

Weekly Close Shapes Broader Trend Outlook

Monday’s advance triggered a monthly bullish continuation signal on a rise above last month’s high of $3.39. If natural gas can close above that level on Friday, it will end the week in a strong bullish position. That outcome would further reinforce the recovery that began from the April bottom and align with the broader structure of higher lows now forming.