Natural Gas Price Forecast: Key Support Tested at Channel Base

Price Pressures Lower Into Channel Support

Downward pressure in the price of natural gas continued Tuesday, as it fell to a new retracement low of $3.06. Momentum was subdued, which is reflected in a relatively narrow range day of $3.21-$3.06. This shows support being maintained near the bottom of a rising trend channel. However, the key support level is the higher swing low at $3.01 from January. Not only is it a key component of the trend structure, but it also aligned perfectly with rising trendline at the bottom boundary of the channel, establishing a third anchor point for the line.

$3.01 Swing Low Defines Critical Support Zone

The price of natural gas had declined by $4.38 or 58.9% from the $7.44 peak, as of Tuesday’s low. That makes it the largest of three bearish corrections that occurred in natural gas since it bottomed in 2024. Natural gas is sitting in an idea spot to see support led to a bullish reversal and buyers again in control. Whether that happens quickly or not, remains to be seen. This of course assumes that $3.01 support holds.

Reversal Signals Depend on Reclaiming Key Resistance

An upside one-day reversal triggers above today’s high and that could lead to a test of prior resistance and possibly a breakout. But there is a lower swing high at $3.66 that marks the more critical price level as it is part of retracement structure of lower swing highs and lows. Moreover, the 200-day average has represented resistance recently and it will need to be reclaimed before the lower swing high can be.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Levels Frame Upside

Once the lower swing high is recovered, natural gas has a chance at the 20-day average at $4.01 and the 50-day average at $4.11, currently. Fibonacci analysis shows the potential for a 38.2% retracement to $4.73%. A little higher is the 50% retracement level at $5.25, which is close to the $5.50 swing high from December. Since natural gas would be reversing off the bottom of the channel, the side of the channel becomes a potential target. That suggests that at least the $5.50 price zone could be reached, once a sustained advance begins.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade natural gas, please visit our educational area.