Natural Gas Price Forecast: Key Support Tests Trend Direction

Resistance Cluster Caps Recent Advance

Natural gas has been testing support near the 20-day moving average since it was last reclaimed on March 6. That advance reclaimed the 50-day moving average before finding resistance and establishing a lower swing high at $3.49. Resistance was seen near a prior support and resistance area dating back to April 2025 and recognized by the market multiple times. There was also a downtrend line near that high, as well as an uptrend line. This clustering of resistance contributed to the failure at $3.49 and helps explain the current consolidation near support.

Broadening Formation and Compression at Support

There is a large broadening formation developing in natural gas. Two dashed trendlines mark the boundary of the pattern, each rising and pointing away from each other. At the same time, recent breaks below long-term rising parallel trendlines indicate broader downward pressure. Note that each line was successfully tested as resistance during the two most recent upswings, including to $3.49.

This behavior suggests a possible continuation to the downside, while retention of support at the 20-day average points to the potential for renewed strengthening. Monday’s low of $2.98 is the key short-term support level, aligning with the 20-day line at $3.01. As in the opening paragraph, price remains compressed around this key moving average, reinforcing its importance as a near-term pivot.

Upside Scenario Faces Layered Resistance

A recovery of the lower swing high at $3.29 from last week will show strengthening that could lead to a breakout above last week’s $3.49 high. If that occurs, then the 200-day moving average at $3.55 and 100-day moving average at $3.66 would represent key trend resistance. A sustained reclaim of each average would be needed before there is convincing evidence that price may trend higher. Resistance near the two trendlines mentioned above would also have been recovered by then. If achieved, the broadening formation would then point to the potential for further upside.

Downside Risk Hinges on Support Failure

At the same time, a failure of support at the 20-day average, followed by a break below the recent higher swing low at $2.81, could lead to a lower swing low and a test of the lower boundary of the broadening formation. The prior swing low at $2.58 may then act as the next potential support zone. In other words, the same 20-day moving average highlighted at the start remains a key short-term inflection point – its failure or defense will likely determine whether the next move resolves lower or reestablishes upside momentum.

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