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Christopher Lewis
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Natural Gas

The natural gas markets have rallied again during the course of the trading session on Thursday, gapping higher to kick off the trading day. That being said, the $3.20 level above continues offer resistance that extends to the $3.30 level. At this point, this is a market that I think will continue to struggle a bit but given enough time I fully anticipate that we will have to come up with a bigger catalyst to finally break out or break down.

NATGAS Video 11.06.21

To the downside, I anticipate that the $3.00 level should be a significant amount of support, based upon psychology if nothing else. However, the 50 day EMA is sitting at the $2.93 level, and it will attract a certain amount of attention as well. Underneath there, the $2.90 level would be the next support level. If we break below there, then we will fall apart. At this point, I have to wonder whether or not we are trying to form some type of “double top” in this general vicinity?

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Having said, if we do break out to the upside then it is possible that we could go looking towards the $3.30 level, where we have seen significant selling in the past as well. Quite frankly, I do not have any interest in buying natural gas if for no other reason than if I am going to buy commodities, I would buy something that has a little bit more in the way of fundamental help, perhaps the crude oil markets. I think this is a market that will eventually break lower and could be the first sign of a commodities market rolling over in general.

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