Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas grinds higher

Natural gas markets rose during the Thursday session on better than anticipated inventory numbers. However, this is still a very bearish market so I think this is going to set up for a nice trade above.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, June 28, 2019

Natural gas markets rose during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $2.30 level. That is a reasonably important level as it has been supported in the past. However, I think there is an entire zone of resistance that extends to the $2.40 level. Because of this, it’s very likely that the market will eventually find reasons to fall, and I would be a seller of the first signs of true exhaustion. I believe the market could go down to the $2.20 level underneath, possibly even the $2.15 level.

NATGAS Video 28.06.19

If we were to turn around and break above the $2.40 level, it is likely that we could continue to go another $0.20 to the upside. That is a real possibility, but even then I’m still looking to sell this market. Quite frankly, there isn’t much of a scenario right now that I’m interested in buying this market. We are oversold, and that is something that can’t be denied. However, just because we are oversold does not mean that we should be buyers.

This market is very cyclical when it comes to the seasons, and as a result it’s very unlikely that we are going to see this market have the occasional rally between now and November, but they should all be selling opportunities. That being said, I also believe that the “trade of the year” will probably be buying natural gas down the road. We are at least four months away from that scenario though, possibly even five. With that in mind I simply sell this market every time he gets me a nice set up. Right now, we don’t have it.

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