Natural gas markets initially gapped lower to kick off the week on Monday, showing signs of weakness. We turned around to test the gap again, and then broke down.
Natural gas markets continue to pull back after the initial pop higher, as initially we rallied with the thought of trading the November contract. However, the reality is that cold weather isn’t quite here yet in the northern hemisphere, so people will continue to be a bit skittish. That being said, it’s very likely that this market will pop, but now it’s simply a matter of finding the correct signal to start buying. Currently, we are getting close to an area that could cause some support, but we need to see the right daily structural candle to do so. Unless you are day trading natural gas, there isn’t much to do at this point.
As for myself, I’ll be waiting to see how the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, at roughly $2.30, reacts to price heading in that general vicinity. If we get a bounce from there I would be interested in buying. Otherwise, I believe the next support level is closer to the $2.25 level. Ultimately, this is a market that should eventually have buyers coming back into play, but until we get cold weather forecasts, it may be a bit messy. If you are a longer-term trader, or perhaps have access to the CFD market, you may have the ability to hang on through the volatility. As we head into the later part of the year, natural gas almost always rallies, and this is known to anybody who has traded this market for more than about five minutes. Because of this, the self-fulfilling prophecy should eventually be profitable.
Please let us know what you think in the comments below
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.