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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, July 16, 2019

Natural gas markets fell during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see the 50 day EMA cause a lot of confusion. However, I think there is more playwright now. The $2.40 level looks to be rather supportive, as it is a previous resistance barrier. That “market memory” makes a lot of sense, so at this point I am looking at this as a short term type of market.

NATGAS Video 16.07.19

The $2.40 level underneath continues to be an area of interest, but I think we can get a daily close below there it’s very likely that natural gas will continue the overall downtrend. However, a bounce from here is probably just as likely, perhaps reaching towards the $2.50 level above. Sideways action is what the 50 day EMA is likely determining as it is flat. However, we will eventually break out of this area and therefore be able to make a trade relatively soon.

A break down below the $2.40 level opens up the $2.30 level as I suggested previously, but if we can break above the $2.50 level and opens up the $2.60 level after that. I am still bearish of this market overall, as the natural gas supply will continue to outweigh any type of demand longer-term. That doesn’t mean that occasionally we won’t see a spike in price, as we are getting hot temperatures occasionally in the united states, but even more importantly the recent flooding in the Texas and Louisiana area. Ultimately though, it’s likely that reality sinks back into the marketplace, and we can fade rallies. I like selling your $2.50, and then again at $2.60 on exhaustive candles. I don’t have any interest in buying.

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