Natural Gas Price Forecast: New Lows Expected

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 08.02.24 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas triggers a bearish continuation on a drop below 2.00 and keeps falling. The prior support zone around 2.03 was tested as resistance before price turned back down. That is typical price behavior in a downtrend and supports a scenario of lower prices. At the time of this writing, a low of 1.96 had been reached. That price level was the initial low of the downtrend that was hit a year ago in February. It was followed by a sharp 54%. Unfortunately for the bulls, that does not look like what is coming next. A lower low for the downtrend was established in April at 1.95 and it could still be reached today.

Strong Downward Momentum

Given the strong downward momentum seen recently in natural gas a bearish continuation below 1.95 seems likely. Natural gas started last week with a large gap down open to below a key support zone, around 2.14. It has been unable to show any signs of strength since then. Beginning on Tuesday, it fell to a new trend low, and closed near the low of the day. Today’s bearish price action is a continuation of that bearish trigger.

Below 1.95, Natural Gas Targets 1.80

The first target below 1.95 looks to be around 1.80. That price level was a daily swing low and a monthly low in September 2020. Further down is a potentially more significant lower target zone around 1.61/1.60, as it was an important swing low in February 2016. It is further strengthened by a falling ABCD pattern that has a 127.2% Fibonacci extended target in that price zone. An initial downside target for the pattern was surpassed on today’s decline.

Nevertheless, Price is Getting Extended on the Downside

Nevertheless, the price of natural gas is extended on the downside. It has fallen by as much as 46.3% from the October high as of today’s low. That surpasses the 35.7% decline seen off the March 2023 swing high. For a bullish sign, natural gas would need to rise above 2.17. Until then, downward pressure should continue to propel it to lower price targets.

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