Natural Gas Price Forecast: Rally Faces Channel Resistance and 200-day Average

Rally Meets Resistance

Natural gas powered higher on Tuesday, piercing the 200-day moving average for the third time this month to reach a daily high of $3.50. The 200-day line, now at $3.47, pushed back, with prices dipping below it post-peak. As of this writing, trading suggests a likely close above Monday’s $3.43 high, triggering a one-day bull breakout. A close above $3.47 would confirm the breakout’s strength; below it signals another failed attempt to advance above the 200-day line.

200-Day and Channel Top

This marks the third test of the 200-day average this month, with prior attempts sparking a double top and bearish correction. Today’s high also stalled at the top parallel line of a small rising trend channel, extended 25% (dashed blue line). Resistance at this confluence isn’t surprising — momentum surged from the recent $2.89 swing low, but the lower high relative to October’s earlier peaks hints at potential fatigue. A brief pullback or consolidation would be healthy if buyers aim to hold the reins.

Support and Pullback Risks

The 20-day moving average at $3.22 stands as key dynamic support if tested, but yesterday’s bullish conviction suggests buyers could avoid this level if they maintain control. Weakness would first show on a drop below today’s $3.36 low, challenging the rally’s staying power. The lower high at $3.50, paired with the significant resistance zone, leans bearish short-term unless momentum shifts.

Upside Triggers and Targets

A decisive rally and close above $3.50 would affirm the advance, but clearing the prior $3.55 swing low adds confidence. For a true bullish reversal, prices must surpass the $3.59 swing high, igniting a third upswing in the rising channel and signaling robust demand.

Outlook: Breakout or Breather?

The $3.47-$3.50 zone is make-or-break—clear it for bullish confirmation, or falter for a pullback to $3.22. Watch today’s close: above $3.43 keeps buyers in play, but sub-$3.36 flags weakness. The channel and 200-day line hold the keys — sustained strength needs $3.59, or consolidation may cool this hot run.

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