Natural Gas Price Forecast: Weakens After Failed Breakout

Chart Action

Natural gas faced rejection at a key resistance zone, triggering a one-day bearish reversal on Thursday to a three-day low of $3.31. The move carved a lower daily high and low, with sellers holding firm in the lower third of the day’s range as of this writing. A close below Wednesday’s $3.39 low would confirm the breakdown, with support found at a downtrend line today.

Resistance Zone

A $3.55-$3.59 resistance range, defined by weekly highs in three of the past four weeks, includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.55 and the nearby 200-day moving average at $3.46. While no breakout above $3.59 has occurred, recent strength suggests improving demand, hinting at a potential push through if momentum rebuilds after this pullback.

Trade Setup

Despite resistance, the rising near-term uptrend shows promise for a $3.59 breakout, establishing a higher swing high and confirming continuation. An initial target at $3.71 aligns with a rising ABCD pattern, matching prior upswing magnitude, and may test the 25% extended top rising channel line. The rally from August’s $2.89 low mirrors earlier sharp advances. Strength was shown by a reclaim of the channel centerline, 20-day average, long-term uptrend line, and downtrend line, with three days partially above the 200-day average signaling vigor, though unsustainable so far.

Support Levels

A break below today’s $3.31 low would breach the downtrend line, a minor bearish signal targeting the 20-day average at $3.27, currently rising. This level becomes critical to gauge if buyers can defend the uptrend’s structure or if deeper weakness emerges.

Outlook

The $3.39 close decides the day—below it confirms pullback momentum toward $3.27, above it keeps breakout hopes alive. The $3.55-$3.59 zone remains the hurdle for bulls aiming at $3.71. Watch today’s action: strength preserves the uptrend, but a downtrend line break signals caution until support firms up.

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