Natural Gas Price forecast for the week of February 12, 2018, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets broke down during the week, slicing below the $2.75 level, and now look to threaten the $2.50 level. I believe that a breakdown below that level should send the market down to the lower levels of last year. However, I suspect that selling at this point would essentially “chasing the trade”, something that I refuse to do. Ultimate, I look at rallies as an opportunity to start selling but trying to pick up natural gas at this point would essentially be “catching a falling knife.”

Quite frankly, I need to see this market rally to be comfortable place a position. If we were to break down below the $2.40 level, then it’s an entirely new ballgame. We have been consolidating for quite some time, roughly 18 months so I prefer to see more of the same as it has been a reasonably easy trade, although volatile on short-term charts. I think that we may get an opportunity to sell in the next couple of weeks, but a bounce is necessary. If we break down, I will keep you abreast as to what I’m doing on the longer-term charts here at FX Empire, but suffice to say I have no interest in buying at all, not even on short-term charts. Ultimately, natural gas is oversupplied and should continue to be so going forward, so I think that the sellers will remain rather active, this will be especially true as we escape the cold months and the United States.

NATGAS Video 12.02.18