Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Thursday’s Massive Draw Just Not Good Enough for Bullish Traders

The trend is down according to the daily chart. Yesterday’s high at $2.864 became a minor top earlier today. The main top is $2.896. The buying would have to be strong enough to take out this top to turn the main trend to up. On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 204 billion cubic feet for the week-ended March 8. That was within range of the 208 Bcf decline forecast by analysts.
James Hyerczyk
Natural Gas

Natural gas futures are trading lower early Friday after failing to follow-through to the upside following three days of higher closes. Yesterday’s reported massive withdrawal for this time of year was impressive, but it came in on the low side of estimates, disappointing bullish traders. The market was supported early in Thursday’s session by strong cash prices, however, they pulled back later in the session after the Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report.

At 11:37 GMT, May natural gas futures are trading $2.842, down $0.018 or -0.63%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for March 15 to March 21, “Temperatures will be warm for one last day across the East with highs in the 60s to near 70F as far north as NYC. However, upstream is a weather system and associated cold front that will bring scattered areas of rain and snow, but more importantly chilly conditions behind it with lows of teens to 30s. Additional cold blasts will push across the northern central, and eastern US this weekend through next week. The West will warm through the weekend but with weather systems and cooling returning next week. Overall, national demand will be moderate the next few days, then back to high last this weekend.”

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 204 billion cubic feet for the week-ended March 8. That was within range of the 208 Bcf decline forecast by analysts.

Total stocks now stand at 1.186 trillion cubic feet, down 359 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 569 billion below the five-year average, the government report showed.

Daily Forecast

The trend is down according to the daily chart. Yesterday’s high at $2.864 became a minor top earlier today. The main top is $2.896. The buying would have to be strong enough to take out this top to turn the main trend to up.

If the selling resumes later today then the first downside target zone becomes $2.814 to $2.803. Taking out $2.803 will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the main bottom at $2.765 the next target. This is the last potential support level before the $2.744 to $2.708 main bottom.

It’s early, but next week’s EIA draw is predicted to come in close to the 5-year average of -56 Bcf due to a mix of mild and cool this past week.

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