Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Break Out Driven By Robust EU Demand

Natural gas prices broke out again on Tuesday. The continuation contract made a fresh 7-year high and is poised to test target resistance near $6.5. A monthly close above that level would lead to a test of the 2008 highs. The weather is forecast to remain mixed with colder weather on the West Coast and warmer weather on the East Coast of the United States.

There is very little tropical activity in the Atlantic. Strong demand from Europe continues to keep the arbitrage open where LNG producers can ship the product and generate gains. Shipping costs are slowly closing the gap along with higher U.S. Natural gas prices. Momentum remains strong. According to Natgas trader WB McClurken, “Natgas keeps trucking higher.”

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices broke out again and are poised to test target resistance near the 2014 highs at $6.5. A break would lead to a test of the 2008 highs near $13.70. Support is seen near the 10-day  moving average at 5.55. Prices are overbought. The RSI is printing a reading of 70.06, slightly above the overbought trigger level of 70. The upward movement of the RSI reflects accelerating positive momentum, but there is some divergence as the RSI did not make a higher high in conjunction with price action.

Short-term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.