Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop on Less than Expected Inventory Draw

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday following a lower than expected reduction in US natural gas stockpiles. Prices attempted to move higher but the weight of declines in riskier assets due to coronavirus fear generated headwinds for prices.  The weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the national oceanic atmospheric administration.

Natural gas prices reversed course in early traded moving below the 10-day moving average which was short term support and poised to test the February lows at 1.64. This level is very close to the 2016 lows at 1.61. A break below this level could see prices accelerate to a channel downtrend near 1.43. Additional resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1.96. Medium-term momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory that points to consolidation. The fast stochastic is also moving sideways with a flat trajectory which also points to consolidation.

Gas Inventories Decline Less than Expected

The Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas in storage was 2,091 Bcf as of Friday, February 28, 2020. This represents a net decrease of 109 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 125 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 680 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 176 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,915 Bcf. At 2,091 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.