Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fall 5% for the Week Despite lower Rig Count

Natural gas prices dropped on Friday despite a larger than expected decline in natural gas rigs. Prices declined by nearly 5%, for the week. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next two weeks which should help buoy cooling demand. There is no tropical cyclone activity currently in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. Supplies fell during the week. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.1% compared with the previous report week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Friday and finished the week down 5%. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.78. Target support is seen near the June lows at 1.51. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is negative to neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a decelerating trajectory which points to consolidation.

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell by 5, to 253, marking the nineteenth straight loss in the number of active rigs. The total oil and gas rigs are now sitting at 701 fewer than this time last year. The number of natural gas rigs declined by 4. The number of oil rigs decreased for the week by 1 rig bringing the total to 180 compared to 779 active rigs this time last year.