Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Gas Lower but End Near the Highs

Natural gas prices declined on Monday but close well off the session lows. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Currently, there are no tropical cyclones expected to form in the Atlantic for the next 48-hours according to NOAA. Natural gas-fired generation has declined year over year.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices declined slightly less than 1% but closed near the highs of the trading session. Prices gapped down but were rejected from lower levels ahead of support at the 50-day moving average at 2.79. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.97. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 16, below the overbought trigger level of 20, which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Natural gas Fire

For the four months ending April 2021, natural gas-fired generation dropped by nearly 7% year over year from the same period in 2020, according to the EIA. The decline in natural gas generation during the first four months of this year results from higher natural gas prices and increased competition from renewables according to the EIA.