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David Becker
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Natural gas prices rebounded from session lows bouncing near support of an upward sloping trend line. There was significant demand in February, which led to the second-largest weekly withdrawal in history. The weather is expected to remain mild across the mid-west and the east coast, which has put downward pressure on prices. U.S. natural gas rig counts moved up to 92 from 91 and were in line with expectations.

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Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices edged lower but settled well off the session lows. Prices tested trend line support near 2.70 but bounced. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.96. Prices are oversold. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 10-below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line.

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Inventories Decline Substantially

The EIA reports that the robust demand for natural gas in mid-February led to the second-largest reported withdrawal of natural gas from storage in the United States. Weekly stocks fell by 338 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ending February 19, 2021, nearly three times the average withdrawal for mid-February. A record amount of natural gas, 156 Bcf, was withdrawn during that week in the South Central region.

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