Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound as Supply Constraint Continue

Natural gas prices rebounded in the wake of Hurricane Ida. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal and to get natural gas out of the Gulf will take time as electricity is down across the state. Tropical depression Kate is working its way north in the Atlantic and there is another storm coming off Africa that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours. Supply rose in the latest week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded on Tuesday. Support is seen near the former breakout level at 4.23. Resistance is seen near the 2018 highs at 4.85. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Supply Rose in the Latest Week

The average U.S. natural gas supply rises from all sources week over week. Total average supply of natural gas rose by 0.9%, or 0.9 Bcf per day, compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Average marketed natural gas production and average dry production rose 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Average net Canadian imports rose 3.7%, or 0.2 Bcf/d, and average send out from LNG import terminals increased 2.7% this report week.