Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound on Inventory Draw

Natural gas prices continued to rebound but remain in a tight range just above support levels. This follows a larger than expected decline in natural gas stockpiles. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal across the East Coast of the United States and warmer than normal across the West Coast, but then turning milder over the next 8-14 days.

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, natural gas prices rise and recaptured resistance which is now support seen near the 10-day moving average at 4.96. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 5.35. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is poised to turn positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is about to generate a crossover buy signal.

Natural gas in storage was 3,623 Bcf as of Friday, November 19, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 21 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 9 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 320 Bcf less than last year at this time and 58 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,681 Bcf. At 3,623 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.