Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise on Less than Expected Inventory Build

Natural gas prices moved slightly higher on Thursday following a less than expected build in natural gas stockpiles. There is one disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical depression 16, is now swirling in the Gulf and is expected to turn eastward making landfall in Louisiana and then Florida. The more west the storm goes the more likely it is to disrupt some natural gas installations. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal over the next 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices edged higher on Thursday bouncing near support at the 10-day moving average at 2.28. Resistance is seen near the October highs at 2.38. Short term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic continues to move higher. Additionally, the current reading on the fast stochastic is 59, which is above the upper half of the neutral range. Medium-term momentum as turning and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Stockpiles Rose Less than Expected

The Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas in storage was 3,519 Bcf as of Friday, October 11, 2019. This represents a net increase of 104 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations according to Estimize was for a 132 Bcf draw. Stocks were 494 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 14 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,505 Bcf. At 3,519 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.