David Becker
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Natural gas prices surged higher on Monday, rising more than 6% as warmer than normal weather is forecast to cover the East coast of the United States for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. The warm weather will drive increased cooling demand, which is providing a tailwind to prices. The mid-Atlantic region is expected to see much warmer than normal weather, which could significantly buoy prices. Shipments to Mexico dropped in the latest week while imports from Canada remain steady.

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Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices broke out, surging 6% on Monday and breaking through resistance which is now support near the February highs at 3.08. Target resistance is seen near the continuation contract highs in February at 3.31. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.91. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 91, above the overbought trigger level of 80, foreshadowing a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The weekly MACD has also generated a buy signal which means that the uptrend is solidly in place.

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