Gold Price Analysis – Gold Stuck Between 2 EMAs

Gold Technical Analysis

The gold market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise, not only nominally speaking but also in the bond markets, which, of course, has a major influence on what happens with gold. Gold is a non-yielding asset, so if rates start to rise, it puts a little bit of pressure on the price of gold.

As things stand right now, we are looking at this as a market that is bouncing around between 200-day EMA below and a 50-day EMA above. The $4,600 level is an area that I think offers a little bit of resistance as well, but I would warn before getting too excited about the gold market, as you have to be aware of the jobs number coming out on Friday, and that, of course, will have a major influence on bond markets, which would have a major influence on gold as a knock-on effect.

Long-Term Outlook and Key Drivers

I am bullish on gold for a longer-term move, and I do recognize that sooner or later, once we get the situation in the Middle East settled, we will probably see interest rates drop, allowing gold to really take off. Ultimately, this is a market that I don’t really want to short, but I need to see short-term pullbacks in order to buy.

Longer term, I would anticipate a move back towards the $5,000 level, but if we were to break down below the 200-day EMA, that could change things rather quickly. However, that doesn’t seem very likely at this point in time.

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