Natural gas markets have had a horrific week as the Freeport terminal has extended its shutdown.
Natural gas markets have had a horrific week, losing almost $2.00 as the Fremont terminal in the United States has announced that the shutdown will take much longer than anticipated, and therefore the European demand will not be satiated by the Americans. One of the biggest mistakes that people make when trading the Henry Hub contract is that a believe it’s an international contract when it’s basically just the United States.
However, recently the Americans have been exporting more LNG to Europe, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see significant selling pressure. At this point, if we were to break down below the $7.00 level, it’s likely that natural gas will go looking to the $6.50 level, and then possibly lower than that. The size of this candlestick tells you that there is still momentum, and it’s more likely than not that we have seen the high price for natural gas this summer.
That being said, it doesn’t mean that we won’t get the occasional bounce, nor does it mean that we won’t possibly see some type of major shift in momentum and headline noise that could cause a lot of headaches. With this, I believe the market will continue to be noisy and negative, but you need to be very cautious about shorting this type of setup. If we were to break above the $8.00 level, then it’s likely that we could go to the $9.50 level, possibly even the $10.00 level, but having said that, the momentum is most certainly on the side of the sellers of this point and to think that the market is going to recover quickly is a bit much.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.