Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Retreats Amid Progress In U.S. – Iran Talks

Natural Gas Retreats As Weather Forecasts Stay Bearish

Natural gas is losing ground as traders focus on warmer weather forecasts. Weather is expected to be mostly warmer-than-normal until the end of the month.

Demand is expected to rise from February 21 to February 24 due to a colder trend but then drop to low levels, which is bearish for natural gas markets.

From a big picture point of view, the market lacks material upside catalysts, and it remains to be seen whether bulls will be able to push prices higher in the upcoming trading sessions.

Currently, natural gas is trying to settle below the nearest support level, which is located in the $3.00 – $3.05 range. If natural gas settles below the $3.00 level, it will move towards the next support at $2.70 – $2.75.

WTI Oil Pulls Back As U.S. And Iran Report Progress In Nuclear Talks

WTI oil is losing ground as traders focus on the news from U.S. – Iran negotiations.

According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, “the path for a deal has started”. He noted that Iran did not seek to produce or buy nuclear weapons, and added that the date for the third round of talks has not been set.

U.S. officials said that Iran would present detailed proposals on nuclear deal within two weeks. U.S. officials confirmed that some progress was made during the second round of talks.

Today, Iran temporarily closed Strait of Hormuz to hold military drills. The threat of closing the world’s key oil route is probably the only strong card in Iran’s pocket. The country’s economy is under strong pressure from sanctions, while protests against the ruling elite continue, so its negotiating position is weak.

The second U.S. aircraft carrier is on the way to the Middle East, so the U.S. continues to increase pressure on Iran. It remains to be seen whether bears are ready to build their short positions in such an environment.

Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle below the $62.00 level. In case Brent oil manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the nearest support at $60.00 – $60.50.

A move below the psychologically important $60.00 level may trigger a sell-off. Traders should note that the market will remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical news in the upcoming trading sessions.

Brent Oil Retreats Amid Falling Geopolitical Premium

Brent oil is under pressure as geopolitical risk premium declines. Traders bet that U.S. will not strike Iran this week and wait for Iran’s nuclear deal proposals.

Stronger dollar puts additional pressure on the oil markets today. U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders reacted to disappointing economic data from the EU and UK.

The American currency is trying to rebound after recent pullback, which is bearish for commodity markets. In case the U.S. dollar continues to move higher, oil markets may find themselves under more pressure.

In case Brent oil declines below the $67.00 level, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is located in the $64.50 – $65.00 range. A move below the $64.50 level will push Brent oil towards the $63.50 level.

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