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Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – WTI Clears 200-Day MA, Natural Gas Pressured by Demand Drop
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Key Points:
- WTI crude clears the 200-day MA at $63.31, confirming bullish momentum and eyeing $64.40 and $66.18 next.
- Brent crude struggles below $69.79 resistance, with support at $64.92 and bulls needing a close above to rally.
- Natural Gas futures slide toward $2.887 support as weak LNG demand and record output weigh on sentiment.
WTI Crude Clears Resistance, Eyes Further Upside
WTI crude futures closed firmly above the 200-day moving average on Wednesday, settling near $63.70 and breaking a key technical barrier.
The breakout was confirmed by a strong green candle on the daily chart, with price action clearing $63.31 and continuing higher into the close. This confirms short-term bullish control, with the next upside targets now shifting toward $64.40 and $66.18.
Momentum indicators show rising strength, and with volume holding steady, traders will be watching for a sustained move toward the $68.70 zone if follow-through continues.
Fundamentally, the rally came amid heightened geopolitical tension after Poland intercepted Russian drones and Israel conducted airstrikes in Qatar. While these headlines generated a near-2% jump in crude early Wednesday, the lack of actual supply disruption kept gains limited. Analysts at SEB noted that without real supply risk, geopolitical premiums tend to fade quickly—evidenced by Brent’s retracement from last week’s highs.
Bearish pressure also stems from inventory data. The EIA reported a crude build of 3.9 million barrels, well above consensus expectations for a draw. Gasoline stocks rose 1.5 million barrels and distillates jumped 4.7 million, reinforcing concerns of soft post-summer demand. With OPEC+ output rising, and U.S. production holding strong, the oversupply narrative remains intact even as WTI pushes higher technically.
Brent Crude Struggles Below Key Moving Averages
Brent crude settled higher on Wednesday, but the chart shows the contract remains capped beneath significant technical resistance. Prices closed at $67.29, with the 50-day moving average at $67.70 providing immediate pressure. Just overhead, the 200-day moving average at $69.79 represents the more decisive barrier, reinforced by the early September swing high at $69.33.
The downside has recently been tested, with Brent finding support at $64.92 earlier this month after bouncing off the prior low at $64.73. That double floor offers a clear line of defense for bulls, but momentum is still weak.
To shift sentiment, Brent would need to reclaim $69.79 on a daily close; failure to do so leaves the market vulnerable to another retest of support. But the first step in the recovery process is overtaking the 50-day moving average at $67.70.
Upside potential remains contained unless Brent clears the $72.74 level from early August. Beyond that, the $77.77 peak remains the more distant bullish target. Until those levels are challenged, traders are likely to treat rallies as selling opportunities, particularly in light of the heavy supply narrative.
Natural Gas Slumps Toward Support as LNG Demand Drops
Natural gas futures fell sharply, with the chart showing a breakdown toward $2.90 support on rising volume. October contracts failed to hold above $3.00, and price is now approaching key support at $2.887.
A daily close below that level could trigger further selling toward $2.65. Momentum has turned bearish, and sellers are clearly in control short term.
Fundamentals are driving the move lower. LNG feedgas deliveries dropped to 14.6 Bcf/day—down 5.5% week-over-week—while production remains elevated at 107 Bcf/day.
Storage sits 5.6% above seasonal norms, and the upcoming EIA report is expected to show a 69 Bcf injection.
Soft power demand, reflected in a 7.8% drop in electricity generation, further undermines support from late-season heat.
Until LNG demand rebounds or production slows, downside pressure remains the dominant theme.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
About the Author
James Hyerczykauthor
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.
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