Gold rises to a new trend high of 2,052 today before backing off. That’s only 1.5% from the record high of 2,082. It reflects strong upward momentum in gold that has a chance of continuing to help propel prices higher. A daily close in the top third of today’s range, above 2,046.40, will provide a relatively strong close and increases the chance for the advance to continue in the near term. Otherwise, a weaker relative closing price, below the top third of the day’s range, increases the chance for a day or more of consolidation or a retracement into support levels.
Set for Record Monthly Closing
Gold is set to complete a record high closing price for the month of November tomorrow. That will confirm the strength seen over the past couple of months and supports a thesis for new record high prices being on the horizon. Related headlines should help continue to increase demand as the market further anticipates an eventual breakout of a multi-year basing period.
Aggressive 13.3% Advance to Date
From the 1,842 low in October to today’s high, gold was up as much as 13.3%. Arguably, it may be extended in the near term and due for a pullback. Even if the 2,082-record high is approached or exceeded prior to a period of consolidation or retracement, there is a question as to whether upward momentum can be sustained.
Seed Rally May Provide Clues
We can look for clues in the initial advance following the November 2022 bottom. That advance saw gold rise by 21.2% in 64 days before a significant correction kicked in. A similar move on a percentage basis would put gold around 2,194. It so happens that 2,194 is around the completion of the rising ABCD pattern extended target using the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio of 2,185. When two methods identify a similar price area it is the market telling us to pay attention.
The question now is how gold might go about reaching or exceeding that price target. It is not a secret that gold is flirting with new record highs. Nevertheless, a record monthly close in November is sure to bring this knowledge to a wider audience as it is a very clear fact reflecting increasing demand.
Bruce boasts over 20 years in financial markets, holding senior roles such as Head of Trading Strategy at Relentless 13 Capital and Corporate Advisor at Chronos Futures. A CMT® charter holder and MBA in Finance, he's a renowned analyst and media figure, appearing on 150+ TV business shows.