Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to break above the $65,000 level for months, with nearly half of its circulating supply now sitting at an unrealized loss.
Nearly 50% of Bitcoin Supply Is in Loss
Roughly 45%–46% of Bitcoin supply is currently underwater on a 30-day exponential moving average basis, according to CryptoQuant’s Supply in Loss (%) metric.
The indicator measures the share of BTC whose last on-chain transaction occurred at a price higher than the current market value. In other words, those coins presently carry an unrealized loss.
Historically, extremely high Supply in Loss readings have tended to emerge closer to major market bottoms than cycle tops, suggesting that much of the bearish repricing may already have occurred.
In extreme stress, Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss metric climbed toward the 50%–55% region during some of its most severe bear-market phases, including downturns around 2015, 2018–2019, and 2022.
In other words, Bitcoin can remain in a high-loss regime for months, with Supply in Loss rising above 50% before prices establish a durable bottom.
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Bitcoin’s three-day chart shows a bear flag breakdown already underway after price slipped below the pattern’s rising support in June.
BTC is now consolidating near $64,000, below its 20-day EMA at $64,900 and well under the 50-day EMA near $69,200. The flag’s measured move points toward roughly $50,400, implying about 21% downside.
BTC Bear Pennant Targets $46K
Bitcoin is also consolidating inside a bear pennant after its sharp May–June decline, keeping the broader breakdown structure intact.
BTC trades near $64,100, below its 20-day EMA at roughly $64,900 and 50-day EMA near $69,200. A decisive break below the pennant’s rising support around $61,000–$62,000 could resume the selloff.
Applying the preceding decline to the breakout area produces a downside target near $46,400, roughly 28% below current prices.
A recovery above $69,000 would weaken the setup, while the relative strength index (RSI) near 45 keeps momentum tilted bearish and preserves the risk of further selling.