NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 10, 2015, 04:43 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD tumbled 30 points as Chinese imports and exports tanked over the week while PPI data tumbled farther. Only

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD tumbled 30 points as Chinese imports and exports tanked over the week while PPI data tumbled farther. Only inflation data was a bit helpful but most of the Asian markets are worried about growth from their major trading partner. Chinese export data has fallen some way below analyst forecasts, leading to predictions of an interest rate cut and other stimulus measures.

Exports contracted 8.3% in July compared with a year ago, data showed on Saturday, some distance from the 1.5% dip expected by the market.

Beijing’s National Statistics Bureau also revealed that China’s producer price index (PPI) recorded its sharpest annual fall for more than five years of 5.4%, higher than the 5% decline predicted.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, declined after touching its highest level in almost four months as investors considered whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month following solid jobs data that just undershot expectations.

The labour report, released Friday in the US, showed the world’s largest economy added 215,000 jobs in July, just missing expectations for a 225,000 gain.

“It was a highly volatile night for most currencies in the wake of the US payrolls report,” Bank of New Zealand senior market strategist Kymberly Martin said in a note.New Zealand dollar was underpinned by Fonterra Cooperative Group’s announcement on Friday that the dairy exporter would soften the blow of a lower milk payout for farmers this season through an interest-free loan to farmers.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

This weekend and today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
CNY	Exports (YoY) (Jul)	-8.3%	-1.0%	2.8%
CNY	Imports (YoY) (Jul)	-8.1%	-8.0%	-6.1%
CNY	Trade Balance (Jul)	43.03B	53.25B	46.54B
CNY	CPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
CNY	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	1.6%	1.5%	1.4%
CNY	PPI (YoY) (Jul)	-5.4%	-5.0%	-4.8%
JPY	Adjusted Current Account	1.30T	1.41T	1.64T
JPY	Current Account n.s.a. (Jun)	0.559T	0.774T	1.881T
JPY	BoJ Monthly Report

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)			10
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions		64.4	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment		32.0	29.7
CAD	Housing Starts (Jul)		195.0K	202.8K
USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)		1.6%	-3.1%
USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)		0.2%	6.7%
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M