NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast

By:

Published: Aug 3, 2015, 03:57 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD dipped as well as most Asian currencies on weak Chinese manufacturing data which showed further contraction in

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped as well as most Asian currencies on weak Chinese manufacturing data which showed further contraction in the manufacturing sector. The kiwi is trading at 0.6586. The US employment cost index, which serves as a good guide for both inflation and labour market slack, eked out a meager gain of 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, its worst result in over 30 years. It also fell well short of expectations for a 0.6 per cent lift.

The numbers reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in September from the US Federal Reserve, dampening the appetite for the US dollar in the process. The world’s reserve currency was further weakened by a modest report on consumer confidence that also failed to meet market expectations.

China’s factory activity shrank more than initially estimated in July, contracting by the most in two years as new orders fell and dashing hopes that the world’s second-largest economy may be steadying, a private survey showed on Monday.

The report followed a downbeat official survey on Saturday which showed growth at manufacturing firms unexpectedly stalled, reinforcing views that the cooling economy needs more stimulus even as it faces fresh risks from a stock market slump.

The final, private Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 47.8 in July, the lowest since July 2013, from 49.4 in June.

That was worse than a preliminary “flash” reading of 48.2 and marked the fifth straight month of contraction, as indicated by a reading below 50.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Canada – Civic Holiday
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	47.8	48.3	48.2

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.5%	0.3%
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Construction PMI (Jul)		58.4	58.1