Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD recovered 29 points to 0.6542 taking advantage of a decline in the Aussie and the US dollar after traders
The NZD/USD recovered 29 points to 0.6542 taking advantage of a decline in the Aussie and the US dollar after traders realized that they had pushed the currency too low. The possible milk payout forecast by DairyNZ CEO Tim Mackle, based on Open Country, of $4 per kilogram of milk solids has the potential to hit the average dairy farm by $250K according to KPMG analysis. The New Zealand dollar dipped below 65 US cents for the first time in six years as better than expected US data revived optimism about the strength of the world’s biggest economy, and stoked expectations the Federal Reserve will start hiking interest rates.
The kiwi has also been under pressure as slumping global milk prices prompted the Reserve Bank to embark on looser monetary policy in June, and this week’s latest decline caused local economists to downgrade their expectations for Fonterra Cooperative Group’s forecast payout to farmers to below $4 per kilogram of milk solids. Fonterra’s board will review the price on Friday.
Markets are divided on whether the Fed will start raising interest rates from the near-zero policy it’s been running since the global financial crisis, and upbeat data is seen as making a hike more likely. Friday’s release of non-farm payrolls for July are the next big indicator for the US economy, and will be closely watched after a private payrolls report came in below expectations.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
AUD |
Employment Change (Jul) |
38.5K |
10.0K |
7.0K |
|||
AUD |
Full Employment Change (Jul) |
12.4K |
|
24.9K |
|||
AUD |
Unemployment Rate (Jul) |
6.3% |
6.0% |
6.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, August 7, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) |
|
223K |
223K |
|
||
USD |
Unemployment Rate (Jul) |
|
5.3% |
5.3% |
|
||
CAD |
Employment Change (Jul) |
|
5.0K |
-6.4K |
|
||
CAD |
Ivey PMI (Jul) |
|
52.0 |
55.9 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs
Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug
Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt
Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund
Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz
Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt
Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug