NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD continues to trade flat this morning at 0.8200 after positive Chinese data had little effect on the currency. The

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD continues to trade flat this morning at 0.8200 after positive Chinese data had little effect on the currency. The official PMI survey of China’s non-manufacturing sectors also ticked up, to 55.6 in November from 55.5 in October, led by expanded activity in construction services. But growth in air and rail transport and food and beverages both slowed. While a recovery in growth appears possible, there are troubling signs that China is still relying too much on state-led investment rather than the more dynamic private sector.

The kiwi may fall this week, while staying in its recent trading range, as traders await a slew of central bank meetings against a background of stalled US fiscal cliff talks.

Five central banks are scheduled to meet this week, with the most important for the kiwi dollar likely to be the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow and the New Zealand central bank on Thursday. The RBA is forecast to cut its cash rate a quarter points to 3 percent, ahead of third-quarter economic growth figures on Wednesday, while the RBNZ is expected to keep the official cash rate unchanged at a record low 2.5 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

KRW

South Korean Trade Balance

4.47B

3.65B

3.70B

KRW

South Korean HSBC Manufacturing PMI

48.16

47.37

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-0.3%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

-2.90%

-4.60%

CNY

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.60

55.50

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

50.50

50.40

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 04	00:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-2.0%	7.8%
	00:30	AUD	Current Account	-14.8B	-11.8B
	03:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.25%
Dec. 05	00:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.6%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
	20:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
Dec. 07	00:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.05B	-1.46B