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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 10, 2015, 05:41 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD dipped 5 points to trade at 0.6528 after weak Chinese inflation data and the continued gain in the US dollar.  In

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast

nzdusd tuesday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped 5 points to trade at 0.6528 after weak Chinese inflation data and the continued gain in the US dollar.  In New Zealand today, October data is scheduled for release on electronic card spending, while the Real Estate Institute is due to release its monthly report on house prices. The New Zealand dollar slipped as investors continued to weigh up last week’s strong US employment report and its impact on the track for US interest rates, and look ahead of tomorrow’s release of the Reserve Bank’s financial stability report.

In its bi-annual economic outlook report released in Paris yesterday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said a sharp slowdown in global trade and weakness in emerging market economies pose a threat to economic growth. It cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2015 to 2.9 percent from a previous estimate of 3 percent, and its forecast for 2016 to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent. Commodity prices fell amid concerns about the outlook for global demand.

“The OECD downgraded global growth forecasts, citing ‘deep concern’ over global trade, a clear warning for direction for open trade related currencies such as (the) New Zealand dollar,” ANZ Bank New Zealand senior economist Mark Smith and senior FX strategist Sam Tuck said in a note. Concerns about global trade and emerging market weakness “present significant uncertainties to the near-term outlook.”

The OECD’s report suggests the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hike US interest rates in December, will likely slow its pace of tightening, ANZ said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Account

0.78T

1.50T

1.59T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a. (Sep)

1.468T

2.235T

1.653T

 

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Oct)

-0.2%

0.7%

2.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Sep)

2.0%

0.1%

1.5%

   

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Oct)

2

3

5

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

1.3%

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Oct)

-5.9%

-5.8%

-5.9%

   

 

nzdusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

2.800M

 

 

  AUD

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

 

4.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)

 

10.2%

10.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)

 

5.8%

5.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)

 

3.2%

3.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Oct)

 

1.5K

4.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate (Sep)

 

5.4%

5.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 11:00 Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 11:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

 

 

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