NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD gained 62 points in the morning session to reach 0.6534 as traders moved back into the cheap commodity currencies as the run for cover sparked by the French terrorist attacks seems to be easing.  The US dollar gave back some of its gains helping the kiwi to rally. Late last night the FOMC minutes also supported a December lift off.  Since the gathering, economic data have generally supported the Fed’s view that the job market is improving and offered some evidence wage and inflation pressures are slowly and gradually starting to build. The Labor Department early this month reported the US unemployment rate dropped to 5 per cent in October and hiring accelerated after slowing in August and September. Wages picked up and the Labor Department’s consumer price index, released this week, also showed inflation outside of the food and energy sector firmed in October.

Fed officials next meet December 15-16. Futures markets are pricing in an increased probability of a quarter percentage point increase in rates at that meeting.

Data today showed New Zealand producer prices rose in the September quarter, with output prices increasing at a slower pace than input prices as manufacturers were hit by higher import costs from a weaker currency.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 20, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus